If we make Blackjack pay 6:5 on our bad rules, the House Edge goes up to 2.32657%, and even with our otherwise great rules, the player advantage turns into a house edge of 1.36407%. Like I said, 6:5 Blackjack sucks. Even changing every other possible rule to a good rule still leaves 6:5 Blackjack unplayable. Six Deck Blackjack is played with 6 decks of 52 cards, the player or players are dealt an initial two card hand and add the total of their cards. Face cards like Kings, Queens, and Jacks are counted as ten points. The player and dealer can count their own Ace as 1-point or 11 points. Card Counting blackjack 6 and 8 decks. Blackjack is a game of skill. Card counting in decks can help players gaining an advantage in the game. Edward R Thorp is considered the father of card counting. He discovered the principles of card counting and published his method in 1962 in his book Beat the Dealer. His book started the Blackjack. Many casinos today pay blackjacks at less than 3:2 at some tables; for instance, single-deck blackjack tables often pay 6:5 for a blackjack instead of 3:2. 12 Blackjack games almost always provide a side bet called insurance, which may be played when dealer's upcard is an ace.
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Blackjack odds are percentage figures which represent your probability of losing or winning a hand. They can also represent the house edge or their profit margins as well. Usually probability odds don't mean much on the short term, but they clearly average out in the long term and this is why the casinos always win over the long term.
We decided to make a few tables and charts of the most common blackjack probability odds for various scenarios and situations found while playing blackjack. The most important odds percentage represents the dealer's edge in the game. This is the long term advantage that they have which will eventually take your money away. Blackjack is actually one of the most popular games in the casino and also has some of the lowest odds of all the casino games, except casino craps of course. Generally their edge ranges from 1% to 15% depending on what variation of blackjack you are playing.
How to Beat the Casino House Odds
There is one feature that makes blackjack more desirable than any other casino game. There is actually a way to beat the house edge by increasing your odds. In fact, your probability odds in blackjack can be increase to the point where you would actually be making the profit in the long term, essentially turning the casino into a personal ATM. This practice is known as card counting and casinos don't like this because they know they will be losing money.
Before you start card counting, you should learn 'blackjack basic strategy', which is the mathematically correct way to play every move in blackjack to get the best odds. This can lower the house edge to less than 1 percent. When that percentage goes to a negative number such as -1%, then it is you who has the edge over the casino. This is when you complement basic strategy with card counting to get the highest efficiencies.
Odds vs. Dealer Up Card
The first odds chart shows what kind of advantage the player has vs. the dealer based on what his up card is showing. The first column in the chart is what card the dealer has showing after the cards have been dealt. The second column of the table shows the dealer's probability of going bust based on each card. The last column shows the advantage the player has and the probability of winning based on the basic strategy theory. As you can see, the dealer has about a 43% chance of going bust when he has a 5 showing as an up card. At the same time, the player has about 23% advantage as well. Notice that the player advantage goes negative when the 10 cards and ace start showing up. This means the player is more likely to lose.
| Dealer's Up Card | Dealer Odds of Busting | Player Advantage Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 35.30% | 9.8% |
| 3 | 37.56% | 13.4% |
| 4 | 40.28% | 18.0% |
| 5 | 42.89% | 23.2% |
| 6 | 42.08% | 23.9% |
| 7 | 25.99% | 14.3% |
| 8 | 23.86% | 5.4% |
| 9 | 23.34% | -4.3% |
| 10 | 21.43% | -16.9% |
| J | 21.43% | -16.9% |
| Q | 21.43% | -16.9% |
| K | 21.43% | -16.9% |
| A | 11.65% | -16.0% |
Blackjack odds of Busting While Taking a Hit
This chart shows the probabilities of going bust after taking a hit. Busting means that your card total would go over 21 points and would be a hard total as well. The highest score you can get when being initially dealt two cards is 21 points so you can never go bust. This means if you took a hit on a hard 21, you would have a 100% probablity of going bust, which is common sense. Also, if you have 11 points or less, it is impossible to go over 21 points on the next hit and your odds of going bust would be 0 percent.
| Total Hand Value | Probability of Going Bust |
|---|---|
| 21 | 100% |
| 20 | 92% |
| 19 | 85% |
| 18 | 77% |
| 17 | 69% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 15 | 58% |
| 14 | 56% |
| 13 | 39% |
| 12 | 31% |
| 11 or less | 0% |
House Advantage with Multiple Number of Decks
The number of 52 card decks in a game of blackjack influences the house edge. In some cases, the odds increase in favor of the casino when more decks are used. The advantage edge can be as much as 1% towards the casino and this is a big number in terms of odds over the long term. As you can see here, a single deck of card gives the lowest edge for the casino and gives the player better odds. Multiple decks such as eight decks increases the house edge almost 18 times more than it would for the single deck!
| Number of Decks | House Odds Advantage |
|---|---|
| Single Deck | 0.04% |
| Double Deck | 0.42% |
| Four Decks | 0.61% |
| Six Decks | 0.67% |
| Eight Decks | 0.70% |
Two Card Frequency Odds
The next odds table deals with the first two cards being dealt or the 2 card frequency odds. Every player is dealt two cards at the beginning of a round of blackjack so this chart tells you the percentage of getting different categories of hands. A natural blackjack is only 4.8%, which essentially is an ace dealt with a ten card straight off the initial deal. Normally the odds are 3 to 2 and you would win $3 for every $2 wagered. It's a small percentage but it's the most desirable hand to get. The lowest hand you can get is two points (two aces). This is part of the decision hands group where players are usually dealt soft hands and can make decisions without going bust. This group is the most common.
The other category is the hard standing hands. These hands are somewhat desirable because of the high scores likely to beat the dealer. These are the second most frequent two card blackjack hands. Finally there is a no bust two card hand. No bust means any two card hand that won't bust on the next hit, such as any soft hand or hard hand that is 11 points or less.
| Two Card Combination | Frequency Percentage |
|---|---|
| Natural 21 Blackjack | 4.8% |
| Hard Standing (17 - 20) | 30.0% |
| Decision Hands (2-16) | 38.7% |
| No Bust | 26.5% |
| Total (all two card hands) | 100% |
Probability Edge for Each Card Removed from Deck
The next table shows how much your odds improve after when certain cards have been dealt and removed from the deck. Certain cards taken out of the deck and increase or decrease your blackjack odds percentage and the house edge.
This is very important for card counting. If you want the absolute perfect odds in card counting, you have to acount for each small change in the odds whenever a card is dealt. As you can see from the table, when small cards are taken out of play, the odds increase in your favor overall. This is a paramount property of card counting. The opposite happens when large cards are dealt. Your odds begin to decrease. When you are counting cards, you will notice your count decreasing when large cards are dealt.
6 Deck Blackjack Odds
You can imagine how complicated it would be to be adding these numbers in your head while card counting at the same time. If your mind was a computer, it would be easier to keep track of the percentage. Some people can do this, and this is the way to become a perfect card counter! It is easier to keep track of the odds when playing with a single blackjack deck. For example, when five cards are seen on the table, they offer a 0.67% increase in your advantage. In fact, when a lot of fives are used up, your odds will be much higher than if any of the other low cards were used up, even the six point cards. Also, these effects are cumulative so you always need to keep track of the odds after every card is dealt. This data is actually quite amazing!
| Removed Card | Effect on Odds |
|---|---|
| 2 | 0.40% |
| 3 | 0.43% |
| 4 | 0.52% |
| 5 | 0.67% |
| 6 | 0.45% |
| 7 | 0.30% |
| 8 | 0.01% |
| 9 | -0.15% |
| 10 | -0.51% |
| Jack | -0.51% |
| Queen | -0.51% |
| King | -0.51% |
| Ace | -0.59% |
Dealer Final Hand Probability Odds
This next table shows the odds of what the dealer's final hand will be. Usually in blackjack, the dealer must hit on 16 and stand on 17. These rules are slightly different for other variations of twenty-one. So generally, the odds of the dealer's final score being 16 are 0% because he must hit. This table will show the probability of the dealer busting or getting a non-bust hand as well as natural blackjacks.
| Dealer Final Hand | Probability of Getting Final Hand |
|---|---|
| Natural Blackjack | 4.82% |
| 21 (more than 2 cards) | 7.36% |
| 20 | 17.58% |
| 19 | 13.48% |
| 18 | 13.81% |
| 17 | 14.58% |
| Non-Bust (less than 21) | 71.63% |
| Bust (more than 21) | 28.37% |
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I've never played a shoe game. I only played pitch blackjack (5 buy-ins last Oct 2016, 2 buy-ins Apr 2017). I had small but positive returns on both occasions. My first time to successfully card-count was this past Apr 2017.
http://wizardofvegas.com/member/lostwages/blog/#post1540
On my 3rd trip (maybe end of 2017 or early 2018), I'm thinking to myself that I should try a shoe game AT LEAST ONCE. FYI, I plan to return to stay and play at MSS, not the Cal. In between blackjack, I will go for the scratchers at the Boar's Head Bar or nearby alcoves that have 10/7 DB with 100.62% ER after factoring in 9 more coins when you get a quad.After trying the shoe game, if I don't like it, I'll revert to pitch blackjack,
However, whether or not I'll like the shoe game, I have already planned to revise my bankroll and betting strategy so that I'm not underfunded, and have enough BR to cover double downs and positive TC counts >=3.
AFTER I'm sure I know the differences between 2-deck and 6-deck blackjack, I'll work on this strategy. Thanks to all the tips from WoV members, I've now compiled what I think is a usable table comparing 2-deck and 6-deck blackjack. I'm trying to plan my 'attack' months before my trip, so that I will act as natural as possible and not attract attention.
My questions are:
1. Did I miss any elements to compare for 2-deck vs 6-deck blackjack? Again, I've never played 6-deck blackjack, so I might easily have misinterpreted tips and suggestions I've been reading on the WoV forum.
2. Any GENERAL guidelines to planning my bankroll? I am a low-roller, and my BR will be under $1,000 for 3 or 4 playing days.
3. If possible, I prefer to play head-to-head early in the mornings, at least until I'm really comfortable card-counting. I understand this means I'd have to play through negative TCs, but is there anything I might be overlooking?
| Comparing | 2-deck Blackjack (pitch) | 6-deck Blackjack (shoe) |
|---|---|---|
| Bankroll | still figuring out, suggestions welcomed! | still figuring out, suggestions welcomed! |
| Bets | Rapidly change, but doesn't last long | Slowly change, but you'll have more rounds to continue with ramped up bet |
| Cards, number of | 104 | 312 |
| Card-counting | Count hole cards when flipped over, and hit cards that come out on the felt. | Start counting when players get their 2nd card, and use cancellation principle. |
| Count fluctuation | Frequently and rapidly goes up and down; new shuffle comes quickly before you can make more than 2-3 ramped up bets. | Changes more gradually, but you get more than 2-3 rounds to continue with ramped up bets. |
| Dealing | First card is dealt face down, succeeding cards face up. Player can only hold cards with one hand | Cards are dealt face up. Player MAY NOT touch cards. |
| Double-down (non-Ace pairs can be split up to 4x) | more likely to win | less likely to win |
| HE (WoV Survey) | .60225 | .78327 |
| Max TC + (Hi/Lo) | 30.075 | 52.174 |
| Min/Max | $5/$1,000 | $5/$500 |
| Playing time (faster if fewer players) | 15-20 min for 3-4 shuffles, approximating dealer's shift time at Cal & MSS | At 10-15 min per shoe, the pace is faster than pitch BJ. I've not played a shoe game, but I estimate 1-2 shoes/20 min dealer shift. |
- You're reading a bit too much in to it. While yes, you must understand the differences between 2D and 6D, if you have a winning game with Hi/Low you can play either. The biggest differences you're looking at from your perspective (downtown DD) is nDAS I believe. That hurts the player to the point where it's no longer <.5% and it actually changes the strategy a bit too.
- Hi/Low is actually going to perform better on 6D and 8D than compared to 1D and 2D. For the lower number decks, if you're going to specialize in just those, then there are other counts that more specialize with the shorter number of decks.
- 1D and 2D are going to come with a lot more heat whenever you get to a point where you have a spread that can make any kind of decent money (even $10-$20/hour). Especially in vegas, and downtown, just messing around with my younger brother and betting $5-$60 I've been shuffled on. Even with a $5-$60 spread on those crappy games (nDAS) that still only comes out to like $5/hour EV. So you could imagine how you'd have to either spread a ton more, up your base bet, or find a better game to get your EV up to something where you could make any kind of okay money.
- Card fluctuation is a bit misleading as well. The fewer number of decks the more each card has an impact on the TC, yes. However, I've sat down at 6D games, and raised my bet after the first round, raised it again after the 2nd round, maxed at the 3rd round and kept it at max bet for half the shoe. The cards don't always come out evenly, which is a good thing for counters, so it doesn't always 'gradually' go up and down (just like it doesn't in DD). From my experiences, DD is good for hit and run because of the fluctuations, where as 6D is better for getting a lot more big bets out in a good shoe. You might see them a bit less frequently, but you'll also have good TC's to bet in for a lot longer than crapy PEN DD games. I'd think in your situation you'd rather be able to play for a while than to play for 5 min, show your max bet at a DD game, then have to decide whether to leave or take a chance getting backed off at one of your favorite places. At 6D games you can sit around for a while and 'camp out' more with a lot less heat. Aka You'd get better comps playing 6D as well.
- Your 'less likely to win' double-down statement is a bit misleading. The reason the shorter number of decks are 'more likely' is due to the concentration of the cards. This is why we use a true count, but when there's a ton of decks left there's a bit more room for variance. Yes, that's a bit of a word salad, so let's look at examples...
1) Let's pretend you have 11 (8-3), the dealer has a neutral card, and you're doubling down at a 2D and a 6D game just after the shuffle...
2D... What are your odds of getting 21? Well, there are 32 face cards out of the remaining 101 cards (your 2 and dealer up card). Your odds of getting a 21 at this point would be 32/101 = 31.6832%
6D... What are your odds of getting 21? Well, there are 96 face cards out of the remaining 309 cards. Your odds of getting 21 at this point would be 96/309 = 31.068%.
So while you 'technically' are 'more likely to win' with the DD double down, the difference is about half a percent (.5%). In 'general' saying you have about a 31% to win your double on either game is an accurate statement. Thus, I think to have an entire category to stating you're more likely to win on DD and less likely on 6D is vastly misleading to your train of thought, while technically correct.
The best way to compare the games is going to be:
| Comparing | 2D Blackjack | 6D Blackjack |
|---|---|---|
| Heat | A lot more heat generally. Any spread with decent money you won't play too long, nor get comps/offers after being backed off. | A lot less heat generally. Can get away with decent spreads that earns some okay EV, stacking on better comps/offers. |
| Penetration | Usually pretty bad. Especially downtown, you get 50% most places, maybe up to 60%. | Standard PEN last I checked downtown (1.5/6 = 75%). Even on the strip there are 3:2 lower limit ($10 or $15) several places that cut 1D on 6D (83%). |
| House Edge | Downtown games aren't very good... 3/2 H17 DD, SP4, nDAS = .6% HE | Even with 3/2 H17 SP4 DAS = .63% HE, if you're going off strip you can find plenty of places with better low limit rules. So the big difference here is .03%, which is negligible for your situation. |
You're looking at a lot of categories where, yes they're good to 'know,' they should be really erroneous to your decision on what to play. You should be looking for the lowest heat, best PEN, best rules (in that order in my opinion). To reiterate again too, if you're going to use Hi/Low it actually performs better at 6 and 8 deck games than 1 and 2 deck games. There are old threads on here and definitely a lot of threads on other forums (that like to compare counting systems a lot - hint hint) that you can read up on why.
If you love 2D games, and that's what you want to play, then do it. But if you use Hi/Low you'll lose a tiny bit of your edge, and you'll eventually come in to a lot more heat when you start betting any kind of decent action that could earn you even $5-$10 per hour (at least downtown).